The rise of China will undoubtedly be one of the great spectacles of the twenty-first century. More than a dramatic symbol of the redistribution of global wealth, the event has marked the end of the unipolar international system and the arrival of a new era in world politics. How the security, stability and legitimacy built upon foundations that were suddenly shifting, adapting to this new reality is the subject of Will China's Rise be Peaceful?Bringing together the work of seasoned experts and younger scholars, this volume offers an inclusive examination of the effects of historical patterns-whether interrupted or intact-by the rise of China. The contributors show how strategies among the major powers are guided by existing international rules and expectations as well as by the realities created by an increasingly powerful China.While China has sought to signal its non-revisionist intent its extraordinary economic growth and active diplomacy has in a short time span transformed global and East Asian politics. This has caused constant readjustments as the other key actors have responded to the changing incentives provided by Chinese policies. Will China's Rise be Peaceful? explores these continuities and discontinuities in five areas: theory, history, domestic politics, regional politics, and great power politics.Equally grounded in theory and extensive empirical research, this timely volume offers a remarkably lucid description and interpretation of our changing international relations. In both its approach and its conclusions, it will serve as a model for the study of China in a new era.
Table of Contents
ContentsSecurity, Stability and Legitimacy 1Abstracts in (chronological order) 7Biographies (in alphabetical order) 18Asle Toje: Introduction 22Key dimensions 26Security, Stability and Legitimacy 30Structure 31Stephen M. Walt: Rising Powers and the Risks of War: A Realist View of Sino-American Relations 33Introduction 33I. The Balance of Power and the Risks of War 36II. The Historical Record 47III. China's Rise and the Future of Conflict in Asia 53IV. CONCLUSION 64G. John Ikenberry: A New Order of Things? China, America, and the Struggle over World Order 68Introduction 68Rising States and Power Transitions 72Rising States and Liberal International Order 77The Geopolitics of Sino-American Rivalry 83China and the World of Democracies 88Conclusions 95William C. Wohlforth: Not Quite the Same as it Ever was: Power Shifts and Contestation Over the American-Led World Order. 98No (Hegemonic) War and Change in World Politics 101Power Shift, Not Power Transition 111Institutions and Strategic Incentives 118Conclusion 124Rosemary Foot: Restraints on Conflict in the China-US relationship: Contesting Power Transition Theory. 127Introduction 127Power Transition Theory 129The Return of Thucydides 135Regional State Preferences and the Shaping of Regional Order 140Economic Interdependence and Globalized Production Processes 145Domestic Economic and Political Priorities 150Conclusion 152Historical perspectives 154Geir Lundestad: Rise and Fall of Great Powers - the uses of history. 154Introduction 154Realism and the rise of China 155Rise, decline and war 158The United States, China and cooperation 162Interdependence and war 166The US still far ahead 169Conclusion 174Christopher Layne: The Sound of Distant Thunder: The Pre-World War I Anglo-German Rivalry as a Model for Sino-American Relations in the Early 21st Century 179Introduction: 179The uses of theory 182The return of power politics 184The difficulties of rising peacefully 186Bilateral power rivalries 189The United States and stability 194The Carr Moment 197After Pax Americana 200Odd Arne Westad: The Weight of the Past in China's Relations with Its Asian Neighbors 203Introduction 203The United States and China's Relations with Its Neighbors 204China and the Korean Question 207The troublesome ally 211China and the Challenge of Southeast Asian Integration 215The promise of ASEAN 220Conclusion 221Domestic dimensions 224Minxin Pei: The Rise and Fall of the China Model: Implications for World Peace 224Introduction 224Chinese Economic Growth 228Patronage and Co-optation 236Selective Repression 241Manipulation of Nationalism 245Concluding Thoughts 249Johan Lagerkvist: Curtailing China's rise before the Real Take-Off? Censorship, Social Protests, and Political Legitimacy 252Introduction 252Tightening online censorship 259Climate of compliance 261Revisiting the Principal-Agent Dilemma 268Social protests in rural areas: The Wukan incident 270Wukan villagers' effective media strategy 273Conclusions and implications 277Domestic politics- international policies 283David Shambaugh: Is China a Global Power? 283Introduction 283China's Diplomatic Power 289China's Military Power 292China's Search for Soft Power 295China's Economic Power 298Still a Developing Country 302Conclusion & Outlook 304Zhang Ruizhuang: Despite the "New Assertiveness", China Is Not Up for Challenging the Global Order 309Introduction: Is The Wolf Really Coming This Time? 309The China Model 310National Power: The Key Determinant 314The challenge of domestic stability 317Changing the World Order from Within 319Conclusion 324China and its rivals 348Liselotte Odgaard: Coexistence in China's Regional and Global Maritime Security Strategies: Revisionism by Defensive Means 348Introduction 348Coexistence and legitimacy in international political change 351The Diaoyu/Senkaku dispute: Coexistence and regional security issues 354Anti-piracy operations in the Gulf of Aden 360Concluding remarks 365Yoshihide Soeya : The Rise of China in Asia: Japan at the Nexus 370Introduction 370The Rise of China in Global and Asian Contexts 372The Origin of the History Problem 377China Policy of a "Normal" Japan 381Conclusion 389Jonathan Holslag: Can India Balance China in Asia? 392Introduction 392The Causes of Discord 393Military Balancing 400"Diplomatic balancing" 406Economic competition 408Conclusion 413Michael Cox: Axis of Opposition: China, Russia and the West 414Introduction 415United by history 423China and Russia - international cooperation 432Conclusion: China , Russia, Ukraine and Beyond 438Steven E. Lobell: How Should America respond to China's Military Rise? 442Increasing Sino-American Competition 448Offshore Balancing versus Deep Engagement Strategies 450New Model of Realist Major Power Relations 454Disaggregate Power 455Appropriate Elements of Power Rather than Aggregate Capabilities 458Targeted Balancing 459Conclusion 460